Team Efficiency Rankings: Week 11

The rankings saw some pretty significant shifts after Sunday's action, as things are beginning to normalize after a few wonky weeks.  Many observers will be relieved to see where New England and Washington are ranked this week, while Denver's lead as the clear-cut leader has shrunken significantly.

Read more: Team Efficiency Rankings: Week 11

Onside Kick Tools Added

I've added a couple new onside kick tools to the client side of the site. There's an onside kick calculator and an onside kick visualization aid. The tools tell you when onside kicks are worthwhile risks using the new Win Probability model. It considers time, score, timeouts, and opponent strength.

Instead of writing a long-winded post on how to use the tools, I thought I'd jump into the 21st century and make a short video demonstrating how they work and what the results mean. This is the first of what I hope will be a series of videos on various topics. For the time being I'm making both…

Read more: Onside Kick Tools Added

The Worst Rushing Scoring Week In The Millennium

Jonas Gray blew up on Sunday Night against the Colts, rushing 38 times for 199 yards and four touchdowns. He posted a +0.38 WPA, a ridiculous +14.7 EPA on the ground, coupled with a 71.1% success rate. So, how did Jonas Gray lead the way for the worst rushing scoring performance in the millennium? 

In Week 11, there have been a total of eight rushing touchdowns headed into Monday Night Football. Eight. Four of those came from Gray and another three came from Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis in Kansas City. Going back to 2000, there have never been fewer than 11 rushing touchdowns in a week and…

Read more: The Worst Rushing Scoring Week In The Millennium

Should NFL Teams Keep Running in the Red Zone?

A few weeks ago in my team efficiency column, I wondered why teams were beginning to run more in the red zone.  Although passing continues to eat up an increasing proportion of offensive play calls, teams were on pace to call the most red-zone running plays since 2008.  Brian has done previous research suggesting that teams should be running the ball significantly more in the red zone on first down, upwards of 85 percent inside the 10-yard line.  As infuriatingly inefficient fade routes continue to land harmlessly on stadium turfs around the league, are teams beginning to adhere closer to what…

Read more: Should NFL Teams Keep Running in the Red Zone?