Originally published at the Harvard Sports Analytics Collective
Last month, we tried to assess the probability that front offices from each team would fire their coach at the end of a season. While the methodology is laid out in the last post, we can quick summarize here: we found 14 quantitative variables related to team performance—including wins, career win percentage of the coach, and whether or not he made the playoffs that year—that significantly influenced the probability that a coach would lose his job in the upcoming offseason.
Weekly game probabilities for week 12 are now up at Sports on Earth. Probabilities are purely based on current-season stats including core efficiency rates, turnover rates, penalty rates, and are adjusted for opponent strength to-date.
Please remember that the projected scores are not to be taken terribly seriously. Do not bet the mortgage on them as they are not intended to graded against the spread. They are simply a "maximum-plausibility" estimate given respective team scoring tendencies.
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Brian Burke is back for the final AFA podcast of the 2014-15 NFL season. Brian and Dave discuss the Patriots deflated ball controversy with a quick recap of high school physics before analyzing the key analytical storylines of Super Bowl XLIX.