AFC Wildcard Probabilities by Time

Just like last year, the fight for the final wildcard spot in the AFC was a wild ride. San Diego's demise and Baltimore's struggles on offense made things really interesting between 1 and 4pm. BAL, HOU, KC, and SD all had at least a 40% shot at the final AFC berth at some point in the afternoon.

Last season the Chargers were the beneficiaries of losses by BAL, PIT, and MIA. They needed a win and all three to lose to qualify. This year KC shut down their offense and let the Ravens in with their win over the Browns. Here's a chart of how the probabilities flowed through the afternoon:

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Live Playoff Probabilities for Week 17

I'll be hosting live playoff probabilities for the final day of the season. As the games progress, the playoff probabilities will update automatically every 30 seconds. This week I've added a feature so you can see odds for each seed. Live chances for the top draft picks will continue to run today as well.  The playoff probabilities will be running all day and you can find them here or via the Tools menu. 

The playoff probabilities are estimated using a season simulator that plays out the rest of the season from the current moment in time. For games in progress, it uses the live game win…

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Team Efficiency Rankings: Week 16

With just one more Sunday left before the postseason, one of the most popular features on this site has become the live playoff probabilities.  If you've read this article regularly this season, you've probably noticed how the efficiency rankings would seemingly differ significantly from what the postseason odds would suggest.  That largely stems from the fact that those odds are based on Vegas spreads, which obviously caters to the mainstream perception.

Nevertheless, it's still interesting to examine the disparity between those two AFA models.  To change things up in this abridged look at our…

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Dallas' Dominant Opening Drive

The Cowboys had the opportunity to clinch the NFC East on Sunday after three consecutive Eagles' losses. With a win over Indianapolis, Tony Romo would guarantee a home game in the playoffs. The Cowboys came out of the tunnel scorching hot and went on a 16-play, eight-and-a-half minute touchdown drive. Dallas would go on to score touchdowns on each of their first four drives, never looking back in an absolute demolition of the Colts, 42-7.

Let's take a look at this opening drive using our Markov model:
Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray steadily moved the Dallas offense down the field, achieving…

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