Division Round Analysis

My analysis from the weekend's four division playoff games. Let's get to it.

BAL-NE

On NE's first possession of the game, Harbaugh challenged a completion by Danny Amendola on a 3rd down. It was a debatable call and not immediately clear to me it should have been reversed. The on-field ruling gave NE a first down at their own 47, worth 0.629 WP to BAL. A reversal would force NE to punt, worth 0.713 WP to BAL. A failed challenge would be worth 0.620 for BAL. That makes the break-even chance of reversal only 11%. The lesson here is that almost any challengeable play that determines possession is worth it. A coach does not need better than a 50% chance of reversal for it to be worth the gamble, especially in the 1st half. One of my projects in the off-season will be to better estimate the value of possibly running out of challenges.

I think BAL may have had a 100% Success Rate on offense in the 1st quarter. Amazing start.

Early in the 2nd quarter, NE elected to punt rather than try a FG on 4th and 20 from the BAL 34. In the vast majority of situations, a team will choose to try the FG there, so why did Belichick decide to punt? Probably temperature--it was 22 degrees at the time. Very cold temps shorten kicks greatly, turning what would have been a 52-yard try into something significantly longer.

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