AFA continues its partnership with the Harvard Sports Analysis Club. The following analysis is by Harrison Chase and Kurt Bullard.
Around the middle of the season every year, speculation rises among disgruntled fan bases regarding whether the head coach of their beloved team will get the ax by the end of the season. For no coach has this been truer over the past years than Rex Ryan, especially this season. Since opening the season with a five-point win over the Raiders, the Ryan-led squad had dropped five straight before heading into Thursday’s matchup against the Patriots, including a 31-0 shutout at the hands of the Chargers. Adding to the embarrassment of that game was the admission from Michael Vick that he hadn’t adequately prepared for the week’s game. After Thursday’s close loss to the Patriots—which is always a big game in the Jets schedule—we wondered what Rex Ryan’s chances of skating through the year unscathed were and what he would have to do in order to have a decent shot at keeping his job.
The AFA podcast is back with a brand new episode featuring sports economist Dave Berri, author of “The Wages of Wins” and “Stumbling on Wins”. Dave and Dave begin with a discussion of the Detroit Lions recent success, and look at some of Professor Berri’s research on the predictive power of quarterback stats. Professor Berri then explains his views on the business of college football through the lens of labor economics and describes what it was like to testify during the Northwestern unionization hearings.Subscribe on iTunes and Stitcher
Weekly game probabilities for week 7 are now up at Sports on Earth. Probabilities are purely based on current-season stats including core efficiency rates, turnover rates, penalty rates, and are adjusted for opponent strength to-date.
Please remember that the projected scores are not to be taken terribly seriously. Do not bet the mortgage on them as they are not intended to graded against the spread. They are simply a "maximum-plausibility" estimate given respective team scoring tendencies.
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Brian Burke is back for the final AFA podcast of the 2014-15 NFL season. Brian and Dave discuss the Patriots deflated ball controversy with a quick recap of high school physics before analyzing the key analytical storylines of Super Bowl XLIX.