Published: 09 December 2014
In Week 11, there were two missed extra points. This week, there were three more. For an event that converts 99.7% of the time, just how rare is this occurrence?
Since 2000, including botched snaps and blocks, there have been three missed extra points in just 12 weeks and four missed extra points just once (Week 12, 2002). There are an average of 74.6 extra points attempted in a 16-game week. Here are the odds of missing any number of XP given 75 attempts in a week using a binomial distribution:
Given the 79 extra points attempted in Week 14, there was just a 0.18% chance of three or more misses. That is the tenth-lowest probable actual outcome since 2000. Week 11, with two missed out of 55 had just a 1.20% chance of occurring, the 15th-lowest probable actual outcome since 2000.
There is no real strategy analysis to go along with this trend, as in all likelihood, it's not a trend, rather random variation. In fact, in 2002, from weeks 9 through 16, there were 15 missed extra points in 498 attempts (97.0% conversion). The extra point conversion rate was lower back then, so if we use 99.2% as the threshold, that is still just a 0.0017% chance of occurring over that span.