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I've added a couple new onside kick tools to the client side of the site. There's an onside kick calculator and an onside kick visualization aid. The tools tell you when onside kicks are worthwhile risks using the new Win Probability model. It considers time, score, timeouts, and opponent strength.

Instead of writing a long-winded post on how to use the tools, I thought I'd jump into the 21st century and make a short video demonstrating how they work and what the results mean. This is the first of what I hope will be a series of videos on various topics. For the time being I'm making both tools available on the fan side of the site. You can find them under the Tools menu.

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  • Guest - Joe

    Great stuff. How do you think the odds change if you change the spot of the kick-off (I'm specifically thinking of the Vikings-Packers game this past weekend where the Vikes were kicking off from the 50 bc of a Packers penalty during the 2-pt conversion). Seems to me that this should increase your expected value of an onside kick as the result of a failed kick decrease but result of a kick-deep don't change much (likely to be a touchback either way)