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Welcome to Advanced Football Analytics

This is a website I created to share my research and analysis of NFL football. Instead of opinion and intuition, AFA uses facts and data to create the most interesting, most relevant, and most useful analysis available. AFA made modern football analytics a reality by pioneering the tools that have become the standard methods for advanced football analysis. Like any innovative enterprise, AFA stands on the shoulders of giants. Visionaries like former NFL quarterback Virgil Carter and authors of Hidden Game of Football Bob Carroll, Pete Palmer, and John Thorn pointed toward new and better ways to think about the sport. AFA has made their vision come to life.

AFA features original research, advanced analysis, novel statistics, practical tools, innovative models, and captivating visualizations. My site is meant for three distinct groups:

AFA for Teams

The idea is simple: Do the thing that gives you the best chance of winning. The hard part is figuring out what the chances of winning are for your various alternatives. If you knew that, making the right decision would be easy. That's where AFA comes in. 

AFA for Media

Viewers are turning to the second screen for rich information and penetrating analysis, and AFA has what they're looking for. If your organization is providing consumers statistics, you might as well give them the clearest, most meaningful, and most insightful ones. AFA provides intuitively compelling analytic products you can integrate into your platforms. 

AFA for Fans

As a football fan myself, my site will always be geared towards fans. Although the site has a new look and new capabilities, some of which are reserved for clients, all the features readers have come to expect will continue to be available. Player statistics, live win probability graphs, penetrating analysis, and innovative research will continue as the foundation of AFA.

The Story of AFA

It started with a typical water cooler conversation in 2006. Does defense really win championships like they say? Yes they do. No they don't. Sure they do. The debate went around in circles. I said, I've got some statistical software left over from grad school that can settle this once and for all. Over lunch I downloaded some historical stats and caught the bug. Before long I was crunching numbers all the time, sending emails to my football fan buddies with (what I considered) interesting discoveries. To spare them the spam, I decided to sign up for a web page they could visit if interested. AFA was born.

The site slowly grew and gained a following of smart fans. The convergence of readily available data, ever greater computing power, and a weariness with typical cliche-based football analysis helped AFA catch a wave. Over time the features and tools on the site grew. I added a team of great contributors who have given the site fresh life and new perspectives.

When teams began reaching out to me several years ago for analysis, I realized that what started as a hobby had become much more. 

For Teams, Media, and Fans

Learn more about how analytics can give you the edge. Take advantage of the innovative new ways to squeeze the most out of every play. Find out how advanced analysis can help decision-makers at all levels make the right calls.