I'll be hosting live playoff probabilities for the final day of the season. As the games progress, the playoff probabilities will update automatically every 30 seconds. This week I've added a feature so you can see odds for each seed. Live chances for the top draft picks will continue to run today as well. The playoff probabilities will be running all day and you can find them here
or via the Tools menu.
The playoff probabilities are estimated using a season simulator that plays out the rest of the season from the current moment in time. For games in progress, it uses the live game win probabilities to determine game outcomes. For future games that haven't started yet, the model uses implied win probabilities from the point spread. I chose this rather than my own game prediction model to better account for important injuries or other factors that my model ignores, such as the possibility a team will have clinched its seed and will rest key players.
Published: 28 December 2014